Circular Debt : A solution??

Power sector in Pakistan is plagued with the issue of circular debt (dated today and for the time to come). By the way, I assume you all know what circular debt is, otherwise maybe we can talk about it later.

Current government is taking steps (it already sounds funny) and thinking up of way to reduce this problem which has been affecting companies from E&P up till power distribution. The committee includes of water and power ministry officials, Ministry of Finance officials to name a few. Now these are educated, seasoned people (Dr. Hafeez Shaikh ... its "DR."). And the suggestion mostly likely to take affect ... increase the tariff and thereby recover more money from those who pay to ease the problem. WOW.

Let's just analyze if this GREAT idea is going to work or not

There are three types of customers.

1. One who don't steal and pay
2. One who steal
3. One who don't pay

The first type is the best customer a distribution company could have. These customers have a minimum demand for power which is out of necessity. They may consume some more on top of it ... based on convenience. Now, as tariff increases, minimum demand stays in-tact but "convenience" driven demand may reduce to manage the hike in cost. It has been observed that the "convenience" demand isn't relatively more elastic than the increase in price, thus increase in price most definitely increase the revenue per customer and "MAY" contribute in the reduction of the circular debt. But wait, this is only one part of the equation

Those who steal ... well ... that's mostly unaccounted for. Areas affected are mostly "kachi abadis" and politically influenced areas, which are not well-off in SEC class perspective. Those who are politically backed, are headed by the political elites of this very country who are ... well ... that's anybody's guess [Kudos to "reconciliatory politics"]. The increase in tariff will immediately increase the loss in Rupee term, even if we assume that theft does not increase. But considering the level of inflation and the poverty level ... increasingly more of the population is pushed towards the poverty line, which unable them to pay for even the "minimum demand" and hence leads to either non-payment or theft altogether

Those who don't pay are ... well ... majorly the public sector consumers to the likes of KWSB, Police Departments, Other govt. Departments etc. and some part the type of consumers defined in the previous paragraph. And clearly, increase in tariff will result in increase in non-payment rupee amount

Now, the increase in tariff will only work to "ease" the circular debt only if the revenues from the type 1 customer is enough to offset the losses from type 2 and type 3 customer. So, do you think this is going to work???

Author is a crazy crackpot associated with the utility sector

Pak Passport Renewal Process

This blog lists down the steps required to renew a green (Pakistani) passport. Please note

1. The process applies to a holder of computerized passport
2. The passport is within 6 months of expiry
3. The passport office is Karachi (preferably Saddar Office)

Following are the steps

1. You must submit the passport renewal fee in the bank within the premise of passport office
2. Get the Bank Chalan from the entrance of the passport office. It is free of charge
3. Check the fee for the passport renewal. There are two (as on 5th August 2011) processing fee options. Urgent and Normal. Urgent is supposed to get the passport renewed in a week or 10 days. Normal takes 4 weeks as per the documented time
4. Once the fee is submitted (note that Bank Processing Fee is on top of the passport renewal fee), get into the line for photo snap
5. Make sure you have your original CNIC and passport (along with a couple of photocopies) with you.
6. Once you get the photograph taken, you will be provided with a token so that you can proceed to the next step
7. Next step is applicant details amendment/verification. If its a simple renewal with nothing changed, then same form will come up and you just need to acknowledge it. Otherwise make sure you check for the changes whether made correctly or not. You will be provided with a copy of the details in a form
8. Next step is Bio metric impression.
9. Each of these steps are prioritized according to the token number given to you. Follow that number to avoid confusion and chaos
10. Last is that your form is signed and verified by the commissioner present on-site. They may ask for Photographs, Matric/Intermediate certificates, CNIC Copy, Domicile, Parent's CNIC/Deadth Certificate (in case deceased) for verification and submission and may ask your name or chat you up for a couple of minutes
11. This completes your process.
12. Next step is to pick up your passport from Saddar Passport Office. There is a separate line for each division in Karachi (east, west, north, south) as present on your CNIC

For me, I applied for renewal in early June 2011 and was supposed to get it end of June but when I went there on the stipulated date, I was told that its running late and I will get it after 20 days. So effectively it took 50 days to get it renewed

Some tips and recommendations for passport renewal

1. If you are in a hurry like 3-4 or even 5 weeks for passport renewal, go for urgent renewal to be safe
2. The lines for both, Bank Chalan submission and Photograph/Token is pretty long. Its recommended to first get the Bank Chalan submitted and come very early (8:30am or so) and get in the line for token. This will considerably speed up the whole process and dodge the waiting bit
3. Keep photocopies of some of your original documents with you like CNIC, All previous passports, Matric Certificate, Intermediate Certificate, Parent's CNIC, Photographs. It is advisable to keep more than one copies of each

And of course ... Good Luck with the whole process :)

3-step approach to success

There are 3 very simple steps to success in life (in short term atleast) ... or get appreciation from other on what one does ...

1. Identify the expectations

First know what the context is ... how the other person values you ... how do you (currently) fit into the bigger picture ... what are your expected contributions ... what is your expected value addition ... all in all ... what is it against which you will be appraised

2. Manage the expectations

Once you know what people expect you to do ... or perform ... you need to set the context right ... if you think the expectations are set too high, you may need to pull them down for you to match it ... remember ... world appreciates those who surpass the limits set for them ... so "manage" the expectations so that it ... for once ... achievable by you and secondly valued by the other ... if either of these components are missing ... you'll lose the game ... no matter what you do

3. Deliver on the expectations

Last but not the least ... deliver! the farther you go from the expectation ... the higher the appreciation ... but remember ... your achievement in the current cycle becomes a benchmark in the next cycle ... so don't over exceed too much ... its like playing a game of cards ... you don't show all your good cards in one go ...

Good Luck!!!

How the world ticks (part 1)

This is intended to be one of many little posts titled ... to simply observe the way of the world ...

Observation # 1 .. People who do .. do more ... people who do less ... diminish further ...

example ... if someone works more ... they get more and more work and are squeezed further ... but someone who does less work (intentionally or unintentionally) ... keeps on having the plate empty ...

another example ... in Pakistan ... more tax is squeezed out from people who already pay a lot of taxes ... but who evade tax ... still stay untouched ...

any more examples???

Resurrection ...

Hello earthlings (and aliens if they read it) ... after ~ 11 months ... I thought I should resume blotting (yup ... not blogging) ... there are so many thoughts that pass by without being captured ... its like wasting something so precious ... so even if its just one line ... lets just write it down ... and maybe ... sometime ... someday ... we can put it all together like the pieces of a puzzle ... and see what's really there ...

so this marks the RESURRECTION (with a small "R" please) ...

Observe closely ...

1st year students of MBBS were attending their 1st anatomy class. They all gathered around the surgery table with a real dead dog. The Professor started class by telling two important qualities as a Doctor. The 1st is that NEVER BE DISGUSTED FOR ANYTHING ABOUT BODY, e.g. He inserted his finger in dog's mouth & on drawing back tasted it in his own mouth.

Then he said them to do the same. The students hesitated for several minutes. But eventually everyone inserted their fingers in dog's mouth & then tasted it.

When everyone finished, the Professor looked at them and said: The most important 2nd quality is OBSERVATION; I inserted my Middle finger but tasted the Index finger. Now learn to pay attention.

Moral:
Life is tough but it’s a lot tougher when you are not paying attention

Confessions ...

Lightening can strike twice at the same place

The subject line is something people may not agree to. But, its OK! Life is too complicated to for all of us to agree on one thing or the other ... but the fact that yes ... you cannot be certain. Experiences vary from person to person, so setting the context right, what is shared is one experience, one set of feelings ...

As humans, we connect, we associate, we link, we flow, we resonate and then ... all of it just stops ... some of us detach easy ... and some linger on ...

When you linger on ... when you hold onto it ... it hurts when you breathe ... its because the association is important enough to become part of you ... and to decapitate a part of you is never easy ...

The process of detachment involves moving away ... or some would call it ... moving ON ... indeed a logical strategy ... but what if the connection has manifested ... what if the feelings have turned into habits ... what if the association has had a moulding effect on you ... then this strategy fails ... as in ... you can't move away from YOURSELF ... 'cause day in and day out ... when you look at yourself in the mirror ... and even when you don't ... those connections will come marching back ... you will have no where to hide ... and then ... to the rescue is TIME ... its a solution to everything ... one may need to stop breathing for a while ... but with time ... the pain will subside ... the strategy in this case is a matter of choice ... I opine that its better to face it ... then chicken out!

Normally ... one may experience this the first time ... and avoid the next ... but there are imbeciles ... with whom ... this resonating philosophy occurs more than once ... so the subject line ... is more like ... that the person asks for lighting to strike ... which still doesn't change the bottom line ... i.e. it strikes twice!!!

In another perspective ... is that person really plain stupid .. an imbecile ... to say ... fall for it ... more than once ... or is it that one really isn't much in control ... guess this one needs to be left open for debate ...

O-N-E

It amazing how one word, at times, encapsulates every intricacy of your life, how one person simply completes you, how one moment defines you, how one mistake destroys you...

"One" is such an amazing quantity. It always this "one" in the whole wide universe that makes the difference ... rest don't matter! How this "one" changes your life altogether ... and come to think of it ... "one" is just a bit more than none!!!

Favour Bank

A very interesting excerpt from the book “The Zahir” by Paulo Coelho

What is this Favour Bank?

You Know. Everyone knows.

Possibly, but I still haven’t quite grasped what you’re saying

It was an American writer who first mentioned it. It’s the most powerful bank in the world, and you’ll find it in every sphere of life

Yes, But I come from a country without a literary traditions. What Favours could I do for anyone?

That doesn’t matter in the least. Let me give you an example: I know that you’re an up-and-coming write and that, one day, you’ll be very influential. I know this, because, like you, I too was once ambitious, independent, honest. I no longer have the energy I once had, but I want to help you because I can’t or don’t want to grind to a halt just yet. I’m not dreaming about retirement, I am still dreaming about the fascinating struggle that is life, power and glory.

I start making deposits in your account – not cash deposits you understand, but contacts. I introduce you to such and such a person, I arrange certain deals, as long as they are legal. You know that you owe me something, but I never ask you for anything.

And then one day…

Exactly. One day, I’ll ask you for a Favour and you could, of course, say NO, but you are conscious of being in my debt. You do what I ask, I continue to help you, and other people see that you are a decent, loyal sort of person and so they too make a deposit in your account – always in the form of contacts because this world is made up of contacts and nothing else. They too will one day ask you for a Favour, and you’ll respect and help the people who have helped you, and, in time, you’ll have spread your net worldwide, you’ll know everyone you need to know and your influence will keep on growing.

I could refuse to do what you ask me to do

You could. The Favour Bank is a risky investment, just like any other bank. You refuse to grant me the Favour I asked you, in the belief that I helped you because you deserved to be helped, because you are the best and everyone should automatically recognize your talent. Fine, I say thank you very much and ask someone else into whose account I’ve also made various deposits; but from then on, everyone knows, without me having to say a word, that you are not to be trusted.

You’ll grow only half as much as you could be grown, and certainly not as much as you would have liked to. At a certain point, your life will begin to decline, you got halfway, but not all the way, you are half-happy and half-sad, neither frustrated, not fulfilled. You’re neither cold not hot, you’re lukewarm, and as an evangelist in some holy book says: “Lukewarm things are not pleasing to the palate”